Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1604 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1604 RDU 06:20 → SFO 09:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1769 RDU 17:27 → SFO 20:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1604 United Flight history →	RDU 06:20	SFO 09:04	13%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 2623 United	RDU 09:45	SFO 12:28	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1769 United Flight history →	RDU 17:27	SFO 20:10	26%	11%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	8h 10m	99%	84%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	7h 52m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON