Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 580 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:10	SLC 09:42	8%	2%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	7h 04m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337	2h 58m Orlando	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	9h 21m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 20m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	6h 48m	97%	88%
United Details →	RDU 06:24 → IAH 08:15UA 1383	1h 47m Houston	IAH 10:02 → SLC 12:37UA 2242	8h 13m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	7h 53m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:40 → ATL 14:08DL 2052	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 22m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON