tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3038 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3038 Southwest RDU 06:01 STL 07:18 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3572 Southwest RDU 19:51 STL 21:08 14% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571 4h 09m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 34m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 58m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → STL 10:43DL 1289 5h 43m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 57m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:24 → CLT 07:34AA 1903 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 08:47 → STL 09:50AA 2497 4h 26m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519 1h 54m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 6h 17m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 7h 08m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDU 13:47 → ATL 15:20DL 1488 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 7h 18m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York LGA 13:59 → STL 15:50DL 4905 · flown by Endeavor 5h 21m 49% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON