Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1279 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1279 RDU 06:25 → TPA 08:16 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2729 RDU 16:44 → TPA 18:57 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:25	TPA 08:16	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:07	TPA 20:03	18%	6%	0.8%	76%
WN 3605 Southwest	RDU 17:51	TPA 19:54	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 2729 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 16:44	TPA 18:57	23%	8%	1.4%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON