Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1460 RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1214 RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1460 Delta Flight history →	RIC 05:45	ATL 07:18	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1462 Delta Flight history →	RIC 10:19	ATL 11:58	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1402 Delta Flight history →	RIC 06:55	ATL 08:39	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2650 Delta Flight history →	RIC 13:03	ATL 14:52	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1415 Delta Flight history →	RIC 08:00	ATL 09:42	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	RIC 15:09	ATL 16:56	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 1348 Delta Flight history →	RIC 19:22	ATL 21:09	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	RIC 17:28	ATL 19:09	11%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON