Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 225 at 11:01, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 225 Southwest	RIC 11:01	BNA 11:52	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	5h 24m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	5h 35m	98%	89%
American Details →	RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063	2h 41m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295	5h 37m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	6h 07m	99%	87%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	7h 29m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 13:03 → ATL 14:52DL 2650	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	6h 49m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	5h 16m	96%	85%
American Details →	RIC 16:29 → CLT 17:47AA 5505 · flown by PSA	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 20:41 → BNA 21:14AA 526	5h 45m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RIC 15:15 → DFW 17:32AA 1915	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076	6h 02m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON