Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1063 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1063 RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1757 RIC 17:21 → CLT 18:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1063 American Flight history →	RIC 06:30	CLT 07:54	10%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 5452 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 12:23	CLT 13:41	11%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 3154 American	RIC 08:03	CLT 09:35	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1775 American	RIC 10:19	CLT 11:41	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5144 PSA	RIC 15:06	CLT 16:24	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 16:29	CLT 17:47	18%	5%	0.9%	90%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	RIC 19:21	CLT 20:45	21%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 1757 American	RIC 17:21	CLT 18:44	21%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON