Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2493 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2493 RIC 08:15 → DEN 10:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 1695 RIC 16:21 → DEN 18:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2493 United Flight history →	RIC 08:15	DEN 10:07	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 498 United	RIC 16:10	DEN 18:04	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1695 Southwest	RIC 16:21	DEN 18:10	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:12 → DEN 09:21DL 346	5h 36m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	57m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 41m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON