Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2204 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2204 RIC 07:08 → DFW 09:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2067 RIC 19:32 → DFW 21:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2204 American Flight history →	RIC 07:08	DFW 09:27	10%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RIC 11:56	DFW 13:52	14%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	RIC 15:15	DFW 17:32	21%	7%	0.8%	68%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	RIC 19:32	DFW 21:47	24%	7%	0.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON