Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3073 at 17:01, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3073 Delta	RIC 17:01	DTW 18:49	14%	5%	0.4%	no record
DL 5453 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 06:00	DTW 07:55	17%	8%	1.9%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 08:21 → DTW 10:21DL 643	4h 36m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	5h 23m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RIC 13:03 → ATL 14:52DL 2650	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 10m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → LGA 07:28DL 5822 · flown by Republic	1h 57m New York	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	5h 24m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	RIC 15:09 → ATL 16:56DL 3152	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	6h 02m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00DL 5697 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Boston	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	5h 20m	95%	81%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 27m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RIC 17:59 → LGA 19:27DL 5516 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m New York	LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51DL 1014	4h 52m	50%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON