Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3415 at 14:38 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Safest bet that day UA 3415 RIC 14:38 → EWR 16:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 3476 RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3415 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 14:38	EWR 16:08	27%	12%	2.1%	88%worse than usual
UA 3476 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:30	EWR 20:00	38%	12%	2.6%	72%worse than usual
UA 4604 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 06:50	EWR 08:16	17%	9%	1.8%	83%
UA 4493 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 10:30	EWR 11:58	23%	16%	3.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON