tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:28, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 6231 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record RIC 16:52 IAH 19:10 19% 8% 0.3% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 29m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 38m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RIC 15:09 → ATL 16:56DL 3152 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 7h 15m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont 3h 03m Philadelphia PHL 10:43 → IAH 13:07AA 836 7h 41m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:35 → MSP 08:40DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 7h 39m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:52DL 1223 6h 33m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 28m Chicago ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535 6h 51m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:15 → DEN 10:07UA 2493 3h 23m Denver DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 9h 49m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 1h 05m Philadelphia PHL 19:59 → IAH 22:22AA 889 5h 48m 71% 52%
AmericanDetails → RIC 16:29 → CLT 17:47AA 5505 · flown by PSA 54m Charlotte CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935 5h 04m 65% 51%
UnitedDetails → RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00UA 3476 · flown by Republic 50m Newark EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425 6h 13m 53% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON