Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4474 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32%.

Safest bet that day YX 4474 RIC 06:04 → LGA 07:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4673 RIC 19:03 → LGA 20:37 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4474 Republic	RIC 06:04	LGA 07:32	7%	4%	2.4%	no record
DL 5822 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 06:00	LGA 07:28	8%	4%	3.0%	79%
YX 5799 Republic	RIC 09:53	LGA 11:21	13%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 11:32	LGA 12:58	19%	7%	1.4%	93%worse than usual
YX 4429 Republic	RIC 13:12	LGA 14:39	24%	10%	1.4%	no record
YX 5785 Republic	RIC 17:30	LGA 18:57	32%	13%	1.8%	no record
YX 5784 Republic	RIC 19:53	LGA 21:20	32%	15%	1.9%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 19:03	LGA 20:37	32%	16%	1.9%	62%
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	LGA 14:42	30%	12%	7.0%	70%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 17:59	LGA 19:27	52%	25%	15.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON