tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3487 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3487 Southwest RIC 08:51 MCO 10:56 5% 2% 0.6% no record
B6 969 JetBlue Flight history → RIC 16:50 MCO 18:59 28% 12% 3.3% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 5h 12m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 05m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 6h 34m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → MCO 12:34AA 1576 6h 04m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 49m Chicago ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643 7h 13m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont 3h 20m Philadelphia PHL 11:00 → MCO 13:32AA 3268 7h 06m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m Detroit DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08DL 1747 7h 08m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379 4h 38m 91% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RIC 13:00 → LGA 14:43DL 5313 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York LGA 15:30 → MCO 18:52DL 2520 5h 52m 63% 43%
JetBlueDetails → RIC 16:34 → BOS 18:21B6 782 56m Boston BOS 19:17 → MCO 22:18B6 451 5h 44m 63% 34%
UnitedDetails → RIC 14:38 → EWR 16:08UA 3415 · flown by Republic 47m Newark EWR 16:55 → MCO 19:56UA 1900 5h 18m 24% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON