Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3577 at 19:36, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3577 Southwest	RIC 19:36	MDW 20:47	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 11m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 56m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 14m	83%	61%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:35 → MSP 08:40DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON