tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 604 at 06:25, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 604 American Flight history → RIC 06:25 MIA 08:52 12% 3% 1.2% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 12m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 3h 08m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 41m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 07m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 05m 91% 79%
DeltaDetails → RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 6h 11m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 28m 89% 77%
DeltaDetails → RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 7h 31m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 10m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 8h 57m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 19:45 → MIA 22:34AA 2132 5h 00m 58% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON