tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5344 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RIC 06:35 MSP 08:40 12% 6% 0.7% 88%
DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RIC 14:15 MSP 16:19 38% 27% 0.0% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 7h 55m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:15 → DEN 10:07UA 2493 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 9h 31m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00DL 5697 · flown by Republic 3h 50m Boston BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103 8h 58m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 6h 47m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 27m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 5h 36m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → RIC 13:03 → ATL 14:52DL 2650 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 6h 15m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 20m Dulles IAD 08:53 → MSP 10:47UA 2604 5h 17m 92% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 1h 32m Philadelphia PHL 20:26 → MSP 22:27AA 1841 5h 53m 74% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON