Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 224 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 224 RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest YX 3693 RIC 17:35 → ORD 18:52 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 224 United Flight history →	RIC 06:00	ORD 07:23	10%	4%	1.4%	82%
YX 3640 Republic	RIC 10:39	ORD 11:55	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 1242 American	RIC 08:38	ORD 10:05	15%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 2737 American	RIC 12:36	ORD 13:52	24%	8%	1.8%	no record
OO 6249 SkyWest	RIC 20:31	ORD 21:42	25%	10%	1.4%	no record
YX 3693 Republic	RIC 17:35	ORD 18:52	28%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 4547 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	ORD 14:26	13%	3%	3.2%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON