tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 2h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 7h 09m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 7h 17m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 1h 28m Denver DEN 10:15 → ATL 15:30UA 2806 7h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715 8h 26m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 8h 37m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:11UA 1954 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 10:51 → ATL 18:54UA 702 10h 01m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:09 → ATL 15:39AA 1008 7h 17m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347 1h 05m Denver DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671 6h 25m 92% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:28 → SFO 09:50UA 755 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 10:51 → ATL 18:54UA 702 7h 26m 71% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON