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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3578 at 10:16, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3578 Southwest RNO 10:16 AUS 15:39 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:11UA 1954 1h 18m San Francisco SFO 08:29 → AUS 14:03UA 1107 6h 10m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 1h 18m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 50m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 13:19 → AUS 17:13DL 2689 6h 08m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347 3h 14m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 43m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:33 → AUS 13:46AA 1852 6h 24m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:28 → SFO 09:50UA 755 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:20 → AUS 19:05UA 1116 8h 37m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → AUS 20:58DL 622 8h 25m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:59 → SFO 15:17UA 2279 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → AUS 21:53UA 2150 5h 54m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON