tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1657 at 06:21, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1657 Southwest RNO 06:21 BUR 07:53 3% 2% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:11UA 1954 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 4h 04m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:59 → SFO 15:17UA 2279 2h 48m San Francisco SFO 18:05 → BUR 19:34UA 2001 5h 35m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:28 → SFO 09:50UA 755 4h 00m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 6h 49m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 6h 04m 99% 73%
FrontierDetails → RNO 08:55 → LAS 10:29F9 4248 46m Las Vegas LAS 11:15 → BUR 12:41F9 4107 3h 46m 78% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 3h 39m 71% 53%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:59 → SFO 15:17UA 2279 58m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 3h 43m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON