Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3580 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3580 RNO 06:36 → DEN 09:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1254 RNO 14:46 → DEN 18:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3580 Southwest	RNO 06:36	DEN 09:56	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 225 United Flight history →	RNO 05:30	DEN 08:47	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 2497 Southwest	RNO 10:37	DEN 13:57	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 347 United Flight history →	RNO 09:05	DEN 12:21	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
OO 5739 SkyWest	RNO 11:09	DEN 14:37	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	RNO 13:41	DEN 16:55	13%	5%	0.6%	81%
OO 5316 SkyWest	RNO 16:04	DEN 19:49	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1254 Southwest	RNO 14:46	DEN 18:05	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON