Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1361 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1361 RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 324 RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1361 American Flight history →	RNO 05:22	DFW 10:41	7%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 1260 American	RNO 07:26	DFW 12:49	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1911 American Flight history →	RNO 11:03	DFW 16:27	14%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 324 American Flight history →	RNO 14:17	DFW 19:46	19%	8%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON