Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4334 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4334 RNO 06:06 → LAS 07:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4248 RNO 08:55 → LAS 10:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4334 Southwest	RNO 06:06	LAS 07:31	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1651 Southwest	RNO 05:16	LAS 06:41	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4157 Southwest	RNO 09:31	LAS 10:56	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2435 Southwest	RNO 08:41	LAS 10:07	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4766 Southwest	RNO 11:26	LAS 12:52	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2609 Southwest	RNO 12:31	LAS 13:56	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2499 Southwest	RNO 15:36	LAS 17:02	16%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2833 Southwest	RNO 16:56	LAS 18:22	17%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 4248 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 08:55	LAS 10:29	18%	7%	1.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON