Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 4099 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 4099 RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2681 RNO 16:25 → LAX 18:03 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:33	LAX 12:13	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 4106 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 07:00	LAX 08:45	10%	4%	0.8%	88%
OO 457 SkyWest	RNO 10:15	LAX 11:52	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5621 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 08:14	LAX 09:53	12%	5%	0.7%	93%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 15:13	LAX 16:53	13%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 2681 United	RNO 16:25	LAX 18:03	20%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON