Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1819 United	RNO 14:22	ORD 20:31	26%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:11UA 1954	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568	6h 57m	97%	81%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	2h 28m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	7h 25m	99%	81%
United Details →	RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347	2h 40m Denver	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	7h 41m	99%	75%
United Details →	RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m San Francisco	SFO 16:57 → ORD 23:10UA 1887	9h 32m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368	8h 35m	98%	74%
United Details →	RNO 08:14 → LAX 09:53UA 5621 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457	8h 51m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:40 → ORD 18:57DL 2377	7h 52m	100%	73%
American Details →	RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	8h 29m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RNO 08:14 → LAX 09:53UA 5621 · flown by SkyWest	52m Los Angeles	LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113	6h 50m	71%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON