tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 729 at 07:54, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 729 Alaska RNO 07:54 PDX 09:35 11% 3% 0.8% no record
AS 2127 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record RNO 17:35 PDX 19:09 2% 0% 3.8% 98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 40m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 7h 04m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 14m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347 1h 06m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 6h 08m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551 6h 01m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 3h 42m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 6h 36m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:11UA 1954 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 08:14 → PDX 10:11UA 5777 · flown by SkyWest 4h 18m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON