Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3350 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3350 RNO 05:01 → PHX 06:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2016 RNO 16:19 → PHX 18:18 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3350 Southwest	RNO 05:01	PHX 06:57	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1826 American	RNO 06:01	PHX 08:00	4%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3338 Envoy	RNO 09:55	PHX 11:58	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4863 Southwest	RNO 10:56	PHX 12:51	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	RNO 12:54	PHX 14:53	13%	6%	0.6%	89%
WN 4715 Southwest	RNO 16:26	PHX 18:21	16%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 2016 American Flight history →	RNO 16:19	PHX 18:18	21%	9%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON