Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: OO 3137 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3137 SkyWest	RNO 06:12	SEA 08:17	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 601 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 14:46	SEA 16:43	30%	6%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	RNO 17:35 → PDX 19:09AS 2127 · flown by Horizon	2h 21m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	4h 52m	100%	87%
American Details →	RNO 12:54 → PHX 14:53AA 1437	3h 02m Phoenix	PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	8h 11m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	3h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 19m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	5h 30m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045	7h 55m	99%	83%
United Details →	RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347	1h 52m Denver	DEN 14:13 → SEA 16:22UA 2833	7h 17m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606	6h 07m	97%	81%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	2h 37m Denver	DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058	7h 44m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON