Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1954 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1954 RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 755 RNO 08:28 → SFO 09:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1954 United Flight history →	RNO 05:53	SFO 07:11	4%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 5899 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 11:38	SFO 13:03	22%	14%	0.8%	57%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	RNO 13:59	SFO 15:17	27%	11%	0.6%	66%
UA 755 United Flight history →	RNO 08:28	SFO 09:50	30%	13%	0.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON