Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:22, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 06:22 → SLC 08:53DL 1650	2h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 13m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	6h 59m	100%	89%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256	7h 39m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 16:07 → SJC 17:27DL 1359	6h 54m	100%	87%
American Details →	RNO 12:54 → PHX 14:53AA 1437	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 16:28 → SJC 18:36AA 2094	5h 42m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON