tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3578 at 18:58, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3578 Republic ROC 18:58 EWR 20:36 24% 7% 2.3% no record
UA 4385 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record ROC 19:10 EWR 20:30 62% 38% 17.1% 38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:17 → ORD 07:24UA 2008 1h 35m Chicago ORD 08:59 → EWR 12:10UA 2238 5h 53m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:23 → CLT 09:25AA 1485 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697 5h 18m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → ROC 09:55 → DTW 11:18DL 5240 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m Detroit DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573 5h 59m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:10 → IAD 07:31UA 4578 · flown by GoJet 58m Dulles IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 3h 45m 89% 73%
DeltaDetails → ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511 58m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 28m 90% 60%
UnitedDetails → ROC 10:28 → IAD 11:49UA 4476 · flown by GoJet 46m Dulles IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498 3h 33m 82% 52%
UnitedDetails → ROC 15:00 → IAD 16:21UA 4521 · flown by GoJet 1h 21m Dulles IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 4h 10m 92% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON