Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4441 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4441 ROC 06:14 → ORD 07:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2059 ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4441 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 06:14	ORD 07:27	3%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ROC 06:17	ORD 07:24	7%	3%	0.6%	75%
OO 5518 SkyWest	ROC 10:43	ORD 11:50	9%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 11:37	ORD 12:38	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
OO 6316 SkyWest	ROC 20:28	ORD 21:33	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
G7 4609 GoJet	ROC 12:50	ORD 13:54	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2059 United Flight history →	ROC 17:52	ORD 19:00	23%	6%	0.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON