Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1385 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1385 RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 1668 RSW 18:22 → ATL 20:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1385 Delta Flight history →	RSW 05:35	ATL 07:19	4%	2%	1.1%	95%
DL 1361 Delta Flight history →	RSW 06:45	ATL 08:33	5%	2%	1.1%	93%
DL 1395 Delta Flight history →	RSW 08:03	ATL 09:50	6%	2%	1.1%	91%
DL 1089 Delta Flight history →	RSW 10:48	ATL 12:27	9%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 1153 Delta Flight history →	RSW 13:16	ATL 15:05	12%	4%	1.0%	81%
DL 1196 Delta Flight history →	RSW 15:41	ATL 17:34	13%	5%	1.0%	82%
DL 1668 Delta	RSW 18:22	ATL 20:12	14%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON