Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 690 at 10:37 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 690 Delta	RSW 10:37	BOS 13:57	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
B6 266 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 11:02	BOS 14:19	29%	13%	1.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	5h 31m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 00m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 44m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	7h 44m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → BOS 22:35DL 457	6h 54m	96%	77%
United Details →	RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 20:17 → BOS 23:48UA 1365	9h 34m	98%	76%
American Details →	RSW 16:11 → CLT 18:14AA 2018	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → BOS 22:31AA 1843	6h 20m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	5h 56m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	RSW 15:00 → BUF 17:50B6 1950	50m Buffalo	BUF 18:40 → BOS 20:20B6 516	5h 20m	73%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON