tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1950 at 15:00, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1950 JetBlue Flight history → RSW 15:00 BUF 17:50 27% 15% 3.2% 36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 36m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 5h 15m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347 2h 51m Chicago ORD 13:59 → BUF 16:40UA 580 7h 56m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 5h 25m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:52AA 2241 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 13:49 → BUF 15:43AA 2442 6h 55m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → RSW 16:11 → CLT 18:14AA 2018 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 6h 40m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 3h 07m Chicago ORD 18:00 → BUF 20:41UA 1335 8h 13m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:50 → BUF 16:01AA 1724 10h 00m 100% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON