Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	4h 47m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775	5h 29m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:45DL 2150	7h 29m	100%	80%
United Details →	RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502	8h 10m	100%	79%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:52 → CLE 14:40AA 2336	8h 39m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545	4h 32m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339	6h 04m	96%	76%
American Details →	RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:52AA 2241	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 14:08 → CLE 15:49AA 1244	7h 01m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	RSW 11:02 → BOS 14:19B6 266	1h 01m Boston	BOS 15:20 → CLE 17:22B6 641	6h 20m	71%	50%
JetBlue Details →	RSW 16:40 → JFK 19:44B6 1530	54m New York	JFK 20:38 → CLE 22:24B6 2768	5h 44m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON