Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2241 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2241 RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2018 RSW 16:11 → CLT 18:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2241 American Flight history →	RSW 08:48	CLT 10:52	8%	3%	1.4%	97%
AA 1781 American	RSW 11:22	CLT 13:28	14%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	RSW 16:11	CLT 18:14	19%	6%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON