Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1501 at 06:01, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1501 Southwest	RSW 06:01	CMH 08:41	2%	1%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 53m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	6h 13m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892	5h 15m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	5h 47m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501	6h 34m	98%	86%
United Details →	RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	8h 10m	97%	85%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:11 → CMH 13:50AA 1492	7h 49m	99%	82%
United Details →	RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 14:18 → CMH 16:53UA 1069	8h 09m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON