Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1630 at 11:40, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1630 Delta	RSW 11:40	CVG 14:11	11%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	4h 40m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	6h 53m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	5h 53m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	7h 08m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	6h 09m	99%	84%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → CVG 14:15AA 3305	8h 14m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248	5h 20m	95%	81%
United Details →	RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054	2h 55m Dulles	IAD 17:25 → CVG 19:08UA 4521 · flown by GoJet	7h 09m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559	50m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → CVG 22:53DL 5478 · flown by Endeavor	5h 04m	75%	55%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:23 → LGA 17:18DL 379	1h 02m New York	LGA 18:20 → CVG 20:44DL 4929 · flown by Endeavor	6h 21m	69%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON