tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2916 at 11:46, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2916 American Flight history → RSW 11:46 DCA 14:27 18% 7% 1.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 52m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 02m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → DCA 13:43AA 2399 7h 42m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:03 → ORD 08:29AA 2613 1h 35m Chicago ORD 10:04 → DCA 13:22AA 315 7h 19m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 53m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472 3h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 8h 40m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347 2h 52m Chicago ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314 8h 28m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 6h 42m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 16:11 → CLT 18:14AA 2018 47m Charlotte CLT 19:01 → DCA 20:35AA 527 4h 24m 74% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON