Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1378 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1378 RSW 08:05 → DEN 10:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 203 RSW 16:46 → DEN 18:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1378 United	RSW 08:05	DEN 10:38	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 778 United	RSW 16:09	DEN 18:15	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 203 Southwest	RSW 16:46	DEN 18:49	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	53m Atlanta	ATL 08:12 → DEN 09:21DL 346	5h 46m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON