Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1281 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1281 RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2736 RSW 18:24 → DFW 20:28 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1281 American Flight history →	RSW 06:01	DFW 08:05	6%	2%	1.5%	93%
AA 2740 American Flight history →	RSW 14:16	DFW 16:21	19%	7%	1.7%	69%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	RSW 18:24	DFW 20:28	23%	8%	1.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON