Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2001 Delta	RSW 12:28	DTW 15:32	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 2559 Delta Flight history →	RSW 17:49	DTW 20:45	19%	6%	1.1%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:21 → DTW 10:21DL 643	4h 46m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 11m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 39m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 57m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 39m	99%	83%
American Details →	RSW 06:03 → ORD 08:29AA 2613	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 02m	94%	79%
United Details →	RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → DTW 22:35UA 768	8h 21m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	5h 30m	93%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON