Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2053 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2053 RSW 06:50 → EWR 09:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1792 RSW 16:39 → EWR 19:52 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2053 United	RSW 06:50	EWR 09:54	5%	3%	2.1%	no record
UA 2477 United Flight history →	RSW 08:55	EWR 12:02	10%	5%	1.8%	68%
UA 1926 United	RSW 12:05	EWR 15:11	22%	12%	1.5%	no record
UA 1792 United	RSW 16:39	EWR 19:52	34%	15%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON