tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2054 at 11:59, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2054 United Flight history → RSW 11:59 IAD 14:30 11% 4% 0.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 6h 21m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 5h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 02m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472 3h 39m Chicago ORD 20:14 → IAD 23:15UA 304 9h 01m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524 8h 39m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 5h 58m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 5h 14m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347 3h 23m Chicago ORD 14:31 → IAD 17:27UA 587 8h 43m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON