tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2606 United RSW 07:00 IAH 08:36 5% 2% 0.9% no record
UA 1743 United RSW 14:10 IAH 16:02 14% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:28 → IAH 11:48AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 5h 29m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 30m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 6h 43m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:08DL 2327 7h 52m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:52DL 1223 6h 04m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347 1h 32m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 7h 56m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 8h 03m 93% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON