tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2517 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2517 Southwest RSW 05:01 IND 07:45 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3551 Southwest RSW 11:31 IND 14:12 17% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952 4h 58m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 7h 16m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → RSW 12:46 → PHL 15:50AA 2365 2h 29m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 7h 59m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472 3h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 7h 51m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120 5h 51m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482 6h 46m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347 1h 39m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 6h 19m 96% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON