tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2320 at 12:24 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2320 Delta Flight history → RSW 12:24 JFK 15:32 13% 6% 1.8% 78%
B6 1530 JetBlue Flight history → RSW 16:40 JFK 19:44 24% 13% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 5h 15m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 7h 45m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 8h 13m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 5h 41m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766 8h 33m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 19:33 → JFK 21:53DL 2378 6h 12m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → RSW 16:11 → CLT 18:14AA 2018 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727 6h 49m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:16 → DFW 16:21AA 2740 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:32 → JFK 23:10AA 1248 8h 54m 95% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON