tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 379 at 14:23, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 379 Delta Flight history → RSW 14:23 LGA 17:18 34% 11% 2.2% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513 5h 06m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 57m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 47m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472 3h 37m Chicago ORD 20:12 → LGA 23:34UA 2827 9h 20m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490 6h 46m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → LGA 15:25AA 2922 9h 24m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 6h 02m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 7h 11m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:14 → ORD 16:35UA 2472 51m Chicago ORD 17:26 → LGA 20:48UA 456 6h 34m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON